Great work, although I'm not sure how to interpret your findings. Two questions: Are going to do regular updates? How do you get the OPTA data? Are you a subscriber?

I get the OPTA data from the "chalkboards" which can be found at mlssoccer.com next each match's recap, highlights, etc. Then I calculate everything manually

Luck = Points Per Match - Expected Points Per Match

For some reason, a long time ago someone decided that a win should count for three points, a draw for one, and a loss as zero. Margin of victory matters not one bit (except in case of tiebreaker). From a statistical point of view, the win/loss/draw system is human artifice. Some teams benefit from it (winning close games) and others do not.

Expected Points Per Match are calculated by creating a best fit line where Goal Differential is the X variable and Points Per Match are the Y variable.

Great work, although I'm not sure how to interpret your findings. Two questions:

ReplyDeleteAre going to do regular updates?

How do you get the OPTA data? Are you a subscriber?

Yes, I try to update every Monday.

DeleteI get the OPTA data from the "chalkboards" which can be found at mlssoccer.com next each match's recap, highlights, etc. Then I calculate everything manually

Can you define "Luck Points"? Is that somehow related to PKs and cards?

DeleteLuck

DeleteLuck = Points Per Match - Expected Points Per Match

For some reason, a long time ago someone decided that a win should count for three points, a draw for one, and a loss as zero. Margin of victory matters not one bit (except in case of tiebreaker). From a statistical point of view, the win/loss/draw system is human artifice. Some teams benefit from it (winning close games) and others do not.

Expected Points Per Match are calculated by creating a best fit line where Goal Differential is the X variable and Points Per Match are the Y variable.