MLS Goalkeepers Dig the Long Ball (Maybe They Shouldn't)

As most serious FIFA gamers know, you generally want to build from the back - quick and short passes cut up the defense whereas aimless long balls often end up with the opposing team in possession.  The situation is not too different in real life.

I decided to look specifically at Goalkeeper distribution from the mid-week MLS games (7/3-7/4).  I wanted to look at the differences in outcomes between "long" passes (what OPTA calls "launches" and other 40+ yard efforts) and "short" passes.  This seems simple enough.  You would expect a much higher completion rate for the short passes and much lower for those booming goal kicks.  However,  I wanted to take my analysis a step further by looking at the outcomes of each of these possessions.  I used three possible outcomes (many more could have been used): turnover on own half, turnover on other half, or attempt on goal.  Admittedly, this is a small sample size but I think there are still some interesting results, though they are pretty intuitive.

As seen above, those long hopeful boots down the field are completed at a paltry rate of 38%.  It should be further noted that many of these "completions" are to lone attackers who are quickly disposessed even if they are lucky enough to control it.  Of course the converse is that while these short passes are essentially sure things, the defender or midfielder must still find a way to break down the first line of defense, leaving them vulnerable to the dreaded turnover in their own half.  Below find a summary of these findings:

It is not necessarily apparent that one approach is better than another.  Again, this is a small sample size and attempts on goal are not always how you define a successful possession.  One thing does stick out to me:  while the number of turnovers in a team's own half is much higher when using short passes, teams still seem able to advance the ball fairly easily past midfield (81% of the time).  Also,  I should point out that teams that use short GK passes seem to be more comfortable playing this way (and vice versa for non- short passing teams) as can be seen by this chart.  This may also be a reflection of how much defensive pressure the opposing team was exerting:

Also of interest, the differences in approach between goalkeepers can sometimes be quite stark.  The comparison between Troy Perkins vs. San Jose (most long-ball heavy) and Matt Pickens vs. Vancouver (most short-pass heavy) illustrates this.

Troy Perkins

Matt Pickens

What does all this tell us?  Well, not a lot that we didn't already suspect.  If a team has the ability to play from the back, it certainly seems preferable.  This is especially true when holding the lead and looking to kill time.  Goalkeeper distribution is not unlike a punter or a special teams unit in American Football (hear me out, I know it is a ridiculous comparison) in that you're not often going to score off of these plays, but they are important for field position.  And field position is important. 

Mind the Net: The LA Galaxy and Their Goalkeeping (Problem)

It's hard being a goalkeeper.  I remember when I used to play competitively in my youth our goalkeeper would always cry when he gave up a goal, as if he had let the whole team down.  It is an unenviable task, being held accountable to make amazing saves look routine. 

That said, it is apparent to anyone who has seen the reigning MLS Champion Los Angeles Galaxy play this season that their goalkeeping has been poor.  Very poor.  How bad?  Well, let these statistics tell the tale.  I looked at every goalie in the MLS who had started at least three games.  I then subtracted all penalties from their statistics because they distort a goalie's save percentage (saves/shots on goal).  Here is what I found:

It obviously doesn't look very good for the Galaxy goalkeepers.  I understand that not every shot on goal is created equal and that it is up to the defense to make it difficult for an offense to score.  However, you need look no further than the difference between Bill Hamid and Joe Willis of DC United to see how important a goalie can be:  Hamid had more saves in three less games started than Willis while allowing just over a third the number of goals.  Yea, goalkeeping matters. 

I took it a step further with the Galaxy and wanted to know what would happen if they had an average MLS goalie (Donovan Ricketts?) as opposed to the TWO WORST goalies in MLS?

So what is the verdict? Nearly five more goals allowed over the season (.37 a game)  than is necessary.  People can talk all they want about how Donovan or Keane or Beckham or Buddle is not performing up to expectations.  Or how Omar Gonzalez' injury has decimated their defense, but the evidence seems pretty clear to this point that the LA Galaxy have a pretty big goalkeeping problem that they better figure out soon. That is, if they want to make the MLS Playoffs, let alone repeat as champions.